Wall Street Split on Whether Treasury Yields Fall or Rise by Year-End

The split matters because Treasury yields anchor the discount rate for every risk asset, including crypto and tokenized RWAs, so the two camps imply opposite liquidity backdrops into year-end. It also shows that even after the same inflation and debt data, the market has no consensus on term premium — a regime where positioning is fragile and rate vol stays bid. The open question is whether the bond market resolves this through data or through supply, since the debt concern cited by one side is a fiscal, not cyclical, variable.