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Macro

Dalio Says Global Bond Selloff Has Further to Run

Ray Dalio expects the global bond selloff to continue, saying governments and companies are competing for capital as rising debt issuance tests investors’ capacity to absorb it. “We are in a bond bear market, and I think that’s fairly clear,” he said, adding the market may have further to fall. Higher borrowing costs will eventually force credit and spending to contract, weighing on economic activity and potentially spilling over into stocks, though earnings growth is still supporting equities.

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AI take

Dalio's warning matters less as a forecast than as a framing: he casts the bond market as the transmission channel where fiscal supply and private borrowing demands collide, rather than a side-show to equities. That shifts attention to whether issuance is absorbed without forcing a broader repricing of credit, since his argument is that tighter conditions eventually bite through spending and earnings. The open question is whether equity strength, which he attributes to earnings, can keep decoupling from the bond market if the selloff extends.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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