TREE NEWS update: The NFL filed an amicus brief with the US Supreme Court on October 8 backing New Jersey regulators in their case against prediction market Kalshi, arguing sports contracts are gambling rather than swaps and should fall under state oversight, not the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction. The league said nearly $2 billion of the $3.3 billion traded on prediction markets during the season’s first Sunday related to NFL games. Kalshi responded that the CFTC already regulates sports-related markets and that federal oversight is more consistent than state-by-state rules.
NFL Backs New Jersey in Supreme Court Fight Over Kalshi Sports Contracts
AI take
The NFL's intervention turns a jurisdictional dispute into a test of whether event contracts are derivatives or wagers — a distinction that decides whether prediction markets scale nationally or fragment state by state. The league's own trading figures suggest sports is now the volume engine for these venues, so the outcome reaches far beyond Kalshi and shapes how RWA-style event contracts get classified. Watch whether other leagues and state regulators line up on either side, and whether the CFTC defends its turf.
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