UBS: Gold to Find Support Near $4,000, Rise to $5,400 by Sept 2027

The tension here is between a tactical drag and a structural bid. Higher real rates and a firm dollar raise gold's opportunity cost, and futures positioning has already been pared back, yet ETF holdings have not followed the same path — that divergence suggests the selling is concentrated among momentum-driven futures accounts rather than longer-horizon allocators. UBS's call effectively bets the ETF base holds while the macro headwinds fade. The open question is whether ETF inflows persist if real rates keep climbing; a break there would undercut the support level the bank is leaning on.