CoreWeave Credit Risk Hits Record; CDS-Implied Default Probability Tops 60%

Oct 15, 2026 10:31 ET · 2h ago

TREE NEWS reports: CoreWeave Inc.’s credit risk hit an all-time high on Oct. 15, with the cost of five-year default protection rising as much as 74.5 basis points to 1,194.5 basis points intraday, the highest on record, ICE Data Services data showed. Credit default swaps now imply a more than 60% probability of default within five years. The AI cloud company’s 2031 bonds due at 9% fell about 3.3 cents to 79.9 cents on the dollar, yielding 15.6%.

Original source

AI take

The striking element is the gap between a CDS-implied default probability above 60% and a bond price still near 80 cents, a combination that suggests the market is pricing distress rather than near-term insolvency. A yield around 15.6% on 2031 paper points to real refinancing pressure for an AI cloud company whose capital needs are heavy and whose credit profile is now being repriced by derivatives desks, not equity holders. The open question is whether this CDS level reflects AI infrastructure counterparty concerns spreading beyond one issuer.

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