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Macro US Stocks

Citi sees tech stocks driving nearly 70% of 2027 global earnings growth

Citigroup strategists expect technology stocks to contribute almost 70% of global earnings growth in 2027, a concentration that would rank among the highest on record. The team, including David Groman and Beata Manthey, said the largest contributing sector has averaged about 40% of earnings growth over the past 30 years, warning that an AI boom cooldown could put the stock rally at risk.

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AI take

The significance lies less in the tech-led growth itself than in how far the projected concentration exceeds the roughly 40% historical norm for a leading sector, which makes broad global earnings growth unusually dependent on a single industry's trajectory. That dependency is the risk Citi flags: the same AI cycle underpinning the forecast is also the variable that could unwind it. What is worth watching is whether earnings contributions outside tech broaden enough to cushion any cooling, or whether the rally's durability stays tied to AI capital spending continuing at its current pace.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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