Citadel: Fed Policy Keeps Long-Term Yields High, Risks Rise

Citadel's warning lands at an awkward moment: softer inflation and jobs prints would normally pull long yields lower, yet the 30-year sits at a level unseen in nearly two decades. That gap suggests the term premium, not the policy rate, is doing the work, which matters for every long-duration asset. The same note's preference for hyperscalers over frontier model developers implies the firm sees AI infrastructure as the more durable exposure. Whether long-end yields stay elevated even as data cools is the open question.