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Crypto Macro

BIS paper: rising bank deposit rates slow stablecoin growth

A Bank for International Settlements working paper found that stablecoin market growth slows when US bank deposit rates rise, based on weekly US data from January 2019 to June 2025. In the sample, stablecoin market capitalization grew about 15% over a typical 10-week period; a one-basis-point rise in deposit rates cut that to about 12%, or about 6% under an alternative causal method, though the market kept growing. The link was stronger for Circle’s USDC than Tether’s USDT.

Original source

AI take

The BIS finding reframes stablecoins as rate-sensitive substitutes for bank deposits rather than purely crypto-native instruments, which matters for issuers whose growth models assume steady inflows regardless of the macro backdrop. The stronger sensitivity of USDC than USDT suggests reserve composition and user base shape that substitution, a distinction worth watching as rate cycles turn. Whether this elasticity holds outside the sample period, and whether it shifts the competitive balance between the two largest issuers, is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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