Huatai Securities: Diesel Prices Likely to Stay High, Gently Pushing Up US Inflation

This is a macro-view call that links an energy-market bottleneck to US inflation, a channel that matters well beyond commodities desks. The key point is structural: refining constraints and a persistent diesel supply-demand gap, not just the unresolved US-Iran conflict, are framed as the durable drivers, which suggests the inflation pressure is less about headline crude swings and more about middle-distillate tightness feeding through to freight and industrial costs. That has read-across for rate expectations and for dollar-sensitive assets, including crypto. Whether refining capacity and the diesel gap actually stay constrained is the open question.