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China’s GDP grows 4.6% in first three quarters, meets annual target

China’s gross domestic product expanded 4.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with total output exceeding 107 trillion yuan, the National Bureau of Statistics said. NBS spokesman and deputy director Mao Shengyong said the pace is in line with the full-year growth target, noting third-quarter growth rose 0.2 percentage points from the second quarter and the nine-month increment of 5.7 trillion yuan was the largest in five years.

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AI take

The headline number matters less than the momentum inside it: a third-quarter acceleration of 0.2 percentage points, paired with the largest nine-month increment in five years, suggests stimulus and export front-running are still doing heavy lifting rather than domestic demand. That distinction matters for commodities and RWA-linked China exposure, where growth quality—not the target being met—drives positioning. The open question is whether the sequential pickup survives into the fourth quarter once base effects and policy support fade, and whether upcoming activity data corroborate the official read.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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