TD Securities: Debt Ceiling Deal May Slip Past 2027 on Split Congress

The notable point is the timeline: TD Securities is framing the next debt-ceiling confrontation as a 2027 event whose resolution depends on the composition of Congress, not on any near-term fiscal trigger. That shifts the risk from an immediate liquidity question to a political one, with divided government flagged as the harder path to a bill. For markets, the relevant variable is the shrinking borrowing headroom into that window, not the ceiling level itself. Whether the September 2027 estimate holds as issuance and cash flows evolve is the open question worth tracking.