Sahm Rule Creator Claudia Sahm Says Fed Should Raise Rates in October

Sahm's argument is notable less for the October call itself than for the gap it exposes: a rule-of-thumb economist invoking insurance against inflation while market-implied odds have collapsed to 17% from 70% in three weeks. That divergence suggests positioning, not consensus, is driving rate expectations. The transport and warehousing detail matters because it points to pipeline pressure that headline core measures may understate. Whether the Fed treats the Sahm Rule's namesake as a hawkish voice, and whether the market reprices toward her view, is the open question.