Bitcoin’s Four Past Midterm Elections Show Mixed Short-Term, Positive One-Year Returns

The wide dispersion in post-midterm outcomes — from a sharp drawdown in 2018 to a strong rally in 2010 — undercuts any tidy election-cycle narrative for Bitcoin, and the small sample of four cycles leaves little statistical basis for treating midterms as a reliable directional signal. What stands out is the gap between noisy short-term reactions and the uniformly positive one-year figures, which may say more about Bitcoin's broader multi-year trend during those periods than about election outcomes themselves. Whether that longer-horizon pattern reflects anything causal or is simply coincident with past bull phases is the open question worth watching as the next cycle plays out.