Fed officials split over Warsh’s ‘silence’ communication strategy

The gap between Warsh's stated preference for silence and the committee's actual behavior is the story: the volume of public remarks barely changed, so the chair's communication doctrine is not binding on colleagues. That matters most for rate-path pricing, since the shift in October odds followed signals from the vice chairs rather than any formal guidance. The open question is whether the chair can impose discipline on the committee's public voice, or whether markets should keep treating individual officials — especially the vice chairs — as the more reliable signal.