ECB Main Refinancing Rate Held at 2.65%, Matching Forecasts

The absence of surprise is itself the signal: with forecast and prior reading both at 2.65%, the ECB is signaling a pause rather than a turn, and markets had already priced that in. For eurozone borrowers and rate-sensitive sectors, the practical effect is continuity rather than relief. The open question is whether this holding pattern persists as incoming data arrive, and whether the alignment between expectations and outcome reduces or merely defers volatility around future meetings.