US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls 8.5bps to 4.902%, Seven-Week Low

The move matters less for its size than for what it signals about positioning: futures repricing shows traders paring back conviction on a December hike rather than abandoning it, with a majority probability still intact. That leaves the front end unusually sensitive to incoming data, since the two-year's sharper decline suggests duration demand is being rebuilt at the short end. For RWA and crypto markets, cheaper front-end yields ease the discount-rate pressure that has weighed on carry trades, though the effect is marginal while a hike remains the base case. Whether the futures-implied probability keeps eroding is the open question.