Arthur Hayes: Strategy Faces Dilution, Share Sale, or Dividend Cut

Hayes' framing highlights a structural tension: Strategy's Bitcoin-centric model depends on continuous capital inflows, but a sideways market squeezes the arbitrage between equity issuance and BTC appreciation. The options he outlines are not mutually exclusive, and the real signal is which lever management prioritizes—dilution signals confidence in long-term BTC upside, while selling or dividend cuts would mark a defensive shift. For market watchers, the key question is whether Strategy's financing engine can outlast the consolidation phase, as its moves could set a precedent for other BTC-heavy corporate treasuries facing similar liquidity constraints.