SMBC: Fiscal Discipline and BOJ Hikes Key to Curbing Yen Weakness

This frames yen defense as a policy-credibility question rather than an intervention question, which shifts the burden onto fiscal and monetary authorities. The strategist's own caveat is telling: intervention worked against disorderly moves toward 164, implying the tool is calibrated for speed, not level. For yen-sensitive carry and RWA-yield strategies, the distinction matters — a gradual grind weaker is tolerated, a fast one is not. Whether Tokyo pairs fiscal restraint with BOJ normalization, rather than relying on the MOF's checkbook, is the open question.