Goldman’s Pasquariello sees final S&P 500 leg up, then 2027 supply shock

Pasquariello's call is notable less for its bullish tail than for its supply-side framing: the risk into 2027 comes not from demand fading but from a wave of new paper and a shift in corporate cash from buybacks to capex, which changes the market's structural bid. The admission that earnings growth, flows and the AI narrative have all softened at the margin sits awkwardly beside the expectation of one more leg higher, suggesting the setup is late-cycle rather than fresh. Whether that supply shock actually materializes on the stated timeline, and whether the recent Nasdaq drawdown proves a one-off or the start of something more durable, are the open questions.