Chile raises lithium output forecast; global market seen returning to surplus in 2027

The surplus forecast matters less for its size than for its timing: demand growth decelerating to single digits just as new supply lands is what turns a tight market loose. Chile, as a forecast-setter for one of the largest producers, is effectively signaling that the supply response is now outrunning consumption, which shifts leverage away from producers toward downstream buyers. The open question is whether the demand slowdown reflects a genuine plateau or simply a pause, since a 2027 surplus built on 8% growth could unwind quickly if consumption reaccelerates.