Fed September Rate Hike Odds at 66%: CME FedWatch

The market's near-two-thirds pricing of a September hike, paired with Barclays' view of two more moves, signals a firmly hawkish baseline. This matters for rate-sensitive assets like crypto and RWAs, as higher-for-longer policy tends to tighten liquidity conditions. The key tension is whether the Fed's inflation focus, underscored by PCE at 3.7%, will override any emerging growth or credit stress. Watch if the odds shift toward 75-80% as the meeting nears, which would reinforce the current trajectory, or if data surprises soften that consensus.