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JPMorgan: Yen short squeeze risk grows if USD/JPY breaks 155

JPMorgan strategists said a break of USD/JPY below 155 could accelerate yen appreciation as massive yen short positions unwind. They estimate short positions at 16-17 trillion yen, and a full unwinding could push USD/JPY to 142-146. The team, including Junya Tanase, noted recent price action supports the view that relatively large shorts remain, though they see a substantive break below the assumed 155-165 range as unlikely.

Original source

AI take

This flags a specific trigger level where crowded positioning could turn violent, making it a risk event for anyone exposed to yen-funded carry trades or USD/JPY volatility. The scale of the short base means a break below 155 isn't just a technical move but a potential feedback loop, with the 142-146 target implying a sharp repricing. However, the strategists' own baseline sees the range holding, so the immediate question is whether momentum or macro drivers force that break first. For markets, it underscores how fragile consensus positioning has become, and any sustained move below 155 would likely cascade across FX and rates.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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