Bitcoin drawdowns narrow across cycles, gains from lows shrink

The data points to a maturing asset class where volatility is compressing, though the shrinking upside from cycle lows suggests the era of outsized returns may be fading. The debate between a four-year and longer cycle is central: if the 6-8 year thesis gains traction, current drawdowns and recovery patterns could look different in hindsight. The key metric to watch is whether drawdowns continue to shrink without a corresponding decline in liquidity or adoption, which would signal structural change rather than just cyclical fatigue.