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Macro US Stocks

CITIC: Fed rate path won’t decide bond yields or stock direction

CITIC Securities said in a research note that whether the Fed hikes in September won’t determine long-end yields or equity market direction. In the AI era, demand for safe assets like government bonds is trending lower, so the selloff in US and European bonds reflects economic and market logic, not a reason to predict short-term stock moves.

Original source

AI take

CITIC's stance reframes the bond selloff as a structural shift tied to AI-era demand for risk assets, rather than a tactical reaction to Fed policy. This matters because it challenges the conventional linkage between central bank moves and long-duration yields, suggesting markets may be pricing a new equilibrium where safe-haven demand structurally declines. For cross-asset observers, the key is whether this logic holds if economic data deteriorates, as it would test the resilience of the AI-driven risk appetite narrative. The open question is whether the bond market's repricing is a durable regime change or a cyclical overshoot.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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