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Crypto Macro

Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold hits highest since 2020

Bitcoin and gold have rallied together as concerns over developed economies’ fiscal health mount, with the 90-day correlation of their daily returns reaching 0.59, the highest since 2020. However, Bitcoin appears more immune to bond market volatility: its 90-day correlation with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields is only -0.17, compared to gold’s -0.41. Analysts suggest this indicates Bitcoin is less tied to bond market forces than gold, potentially enhancing its ‘hard asset’ status amid fiscal risks.

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AI take

The rising correlation with gold signals that Bitcoin is increasingly being traded as a macro hedge against fiscal deterioration, rather than purely as a risk asset. Its weaker negative link to Treasury yields, relative to gold, suggests a degree of independence from rate-driven dynamics, which could reinforce its appeal as a store of value. The key question is whether this decoupling persists if bond volatility intensifies or if the correlation proves cyclical.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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