TREE NEWS reports: The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is discussing with trading platforms the relaxation of restrictions on retail investors in prediction markets, in place since 2019. The move follows UK users bypassing the ban via VPNs to access Kalshi and Polymarket, valued at about $22B and $21B respectively. Industry forecasts predict trading volume to grow from $51B in 2025 to $240B in 2026. Platforms offering certain contracts still require dual approval from the FCA and the Gambling Commission.
UK FCA in talks to ease retail ban on prediction markets
AI take
The FCA's reported talks mark a potential regulatory pivot that could legitimize a market segment currently accessed through workarounds. The mention of dual approval with the Gambling Commission underscores the unresolved jurisdictional overlap, which will shape how any relaxation is implemented. The open question is whether the FCA will carve out specific contract types or impose new safeguards, as the outcome will determine if offshore platforms face renewed competition from regulated domestic offerings.
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