Nomura: US net liabilities hit 80% of creditor nations’ assets

The linkage between AI-driven capital inflows and external imbalances is the core tension here. Sustained US asset demand has masked deteriorating fundamentals, but the concentration of flows in AI-linked equities creates a fragile equilibrium. The key risk scenario is a reverse feedback loop, where an AI setback triggers capital outflows, dollar weakness, and a reassessment of Treasury demand. This matters for global investors because US liabilities now represent a systemic concentration risk, making foreign asset allocation decisions more sensitive to US tech sentiment. Whether AI's productivity gains can outpace its financing costs is the open question.