German July Exports Fall Unexpectedly, First Drop Since January

The reversal in German exports after five months of growth signals that the EU-wide recovery remains uneven, with intra-European demand still fragile. This directly challenges the Bundesbank's upgraded growth outlook, which now hinges on external momentum that July data undercuts. The key question is whether this is a one-month blip or the start of a softer trend, particularly as reduced EU shipments suggest domestic demand in partner countries is not yet self-sustaining. For markets, the divergence between official forecasts and hard trade data will be the metric to watch for revisions.