Friday Inflation Report Seen as Key to Fed Rate Decision, Timiraos Says

The notable point is the gap between what policymakers signalled and what markets extrapolated: a speech that framed a hike as more likely, without naming a trigger, has been converted into a firmer tightening path than was ever committed to. That leaves a single data release carrying outsized weight, and it puts the burden of proof on the inflation print rather than on forward guidance. Whether the market's more hawkish pricing survives contact with the actual number — and whether Warsh's long-standing objection to trigger-based decision-making reasserts itself — is the open question.