Middle East Conflict May Keep Oil Prices Elevated, Capital Economics Economist Says

The notable point is the channel: this is not a demand story but a supply-risk premium, and it lands while the region's production recovery was already the fragile part of the global energy balance. That matters most for import-dependent economies and for sectors whose margins track energy input costs, since a sustained risk premium feeds through to headline inflation and complicates the rate path. Whether the conflict actually disrupts flows, or merely keeps a premium priced in, is the open question.