Kalshi, Polymarket put Democrats’ House odds at 94%, Senate at 73%

Prediction markets are increasingly being treated as a real-time gauge of political risk, and the gap between the House and Senate contracts shows traders pricing a narrower path in the upper chamber. The slight slippage in Senate odds, while House odds hold near the top of their range, is the more informative signal: it suggests the marginal contract is sensitive to new information rather than a settled consensus. Whether that Senate number keeps drifting, or the two markets converge toward a single power-balance narrative, is the open question worth tracking.