ECB’s Moulin: French Economy Not in Danger, but Deficit Must Shrink

Moulin's framing is notable for separating near-term economic stability from fiscal sustainability: the economy is not in danger, yet the deficit path and debt-service costs are flagged as the real pressure points. The political dimension matters most, since a budget vote by year-end is presented as a requirement rather than a formality, leaving open the question of whether France can consolidate without a market reaction. His rejection of debt cancellation as both illegal and inflationary also signals that the ECB is unwilling to entertain any framework that blurs monetary financing. Whether the budget deadline is met — and at what fiscal cost — is the open question.