MUFG Now Expects Fed to Hike 25bp This Month, Hold in October

The notable shift here is less the hike call itself than the reasoning: MUFG is conceding the Fed may move mainly because markets have already priced it, not because the data demands it. That framing puts the burden on communication — a central bank reluctant to surprise is effectively boxed in by its own market pricing. The strategists' own 'policy error' caveat signals the debate is now about sequencing risk rather than direction. Whether the Fed's next meeting confirms that pricing-driven logic, or whether it reasserts data dependence, is the open question.