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Macro

JPMorgan Now Expects Fed Rate Hikes in September and December

JPMorgan Chase has changed its Federal Reserve forecast to two 25-basis-point rate hikes, in September and December, citing core inflation trends measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index. Chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli said in a Friday research note that core PCE inflation has exceeded 3% every month this year and has made little recent progress toward 2%.

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AI take

This matters less as a rate call than as a signal that parts of the sell-side are abandoning the cut consensus, with a hawkish repricing risk for duration-sensitive assets. It affects anyone positioned for easing, from Treasuries to rate-sensitive crypto and tokenized yield products. The open question is whether other houses follow JPMorgan or treat it as an outlier, and whether core PCE data over coming months validates the shift.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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