JPMorgan: 10-Year Treasury Yield Must Hit 5-6% to Pressure S&P 500 Valuations

The interesting tension here is that the long end of the curve is already at levels last seen two decades ago, yet the equity market has kept climbing, which suggests the discount-rate channel is being overridden by earnings expectations. That shifts the burden onto the durability of profit growth: if earnings decelerate while long yields stay elevated, the cushion JPMorgan describes becomes much thinner. Whether the 30-year holds near these highs, and whether earnings growth can stay above the bank's stated threshold, is the open question.