TREE NEWS reports: CITIC Securities said the Federal Reserve will likely raise rates by another 25 basis points this year before holding steady in 2026. In a research note, the brokerage said the September 25bp hike came as the Fed upgraded its growth and inflation forecasts, with the dot plot and Warsh’s remarks both sending hawkish signals. It added that the pace of further hikes depends largely on oil prices, and that US financial conditions are unlikely to ease meaningfully.
CITIC Securities Expects One More Fed Hike in 2025, Then a Pause
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AI take
CITIC's call frames the September hike less as a terminal move than as part of a still-tightening path, with the Fed's upgraded growth and inflation forecasts and hawkish dot plot doing the persuading. The oil-price dependency is the notable variable: it hands energy markets an outsized role in whether another hike actually lands. Whether that hawkish signal survives softer data, and whether financial conditions stay restrictive, is the open question.
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