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KKR Lifts US Treasury Yield Forecasts, Sees Fed Holding Rates Higher

KKR & Co. raised its forecasts for long-term US Treasury yields, saying it expects the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark rate higher than previously anticipated because Chair Kevin Warsh is worried about persistent inflation. In a note to clients, the private equity firm projected the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.1% by year-end, up from a prior 5.0% forecast, and at 4.9% by the end of 2027, up from 4.7%.

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AI take

KKR's revision is modest in scale but notable in direction: a private-markets heavyweight nudging its long-run rate assumptions upward implies higher-for-longer discount rates across all asset classes, including tokenized Treasuries and yield-bearing RWA products whose appeal rests on relative spread. The signal matters less for the headline number than for the reasoning — anchoring the call to a Fed chair's inflation concerns rather than to growth data. Whether other houses follow KKR's revision, or whether incoming inflation prints undercut it, is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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