JPMorgan Lifts Year-End US Treasury Yield Forecasts

The significance lies less in the revised numbers than in the framing: a major bank explicitly anchoring its rate path to a late-1990s parallel, where growth and inflation forced the Fed into cumulative tightening rather than the cuts markets had priced. That reframes the debate from when easing begins to whether the next move is higher, which matters for every duration-sensitive asset, including rate-exposed crypto and tokenized Treasury products. The open question is whether the 1999 analogy holds if growth or inflation data soften.