Citi: Fed to Hold Rates in October and December, Cut Again in June 2027

The call hinges on a sequencing problem: Citi has the Fed pausing after a hike to observe its effects, then extending that pause through milder inflation prints before easing resumes. For crypto and RWA markets, the signal is that policy stays restrictive for longer than a single data cycle, which keeps the rate backdrop as the dominant macro variable rather than any sector-specific catalyst. The open question is whether the milder inflation readings persist enough to validate the June 2027 cut, or whether the pause itself becomes the new plateau.