Appeals Courts Split on Kalshi Sports Contracts; New Jersey Seeks Supreme Court Review

A circuit split plus a state petition to the Supreme Court turns a jurisdictional question into an existential one for Kalshi's core product, since sports is where most of its volume sits. The outcome matters well beyond prediction markets: it will help define where federal derivatives oversight ends and state gambling authority begins, a line that also touches crypto and other event-based instruments. The open question is whether the Supreme Court takes the case, and how the conflicting appellate reasoning shapes how platforms structure or geo-restrict such contracts in the meantime.