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Macro

US 30-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5.5%, Highest Since 2004

The US 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.5% on September 25, setting a fresh high not seen since 2004. September’s final one-year inflation expectation held at 4.6%, while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 48.1 for the month, against a 47.6 forecast and a prior reading of 47.8.

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AI take

The move matters less as a Treasury story than as a discount-rate story: when the long end clears 5.5% while one-year inflation expectations sit at 4.6%, real yields stay high enough to reset the hurdle for every long-duration, cash-flow-light asset — the exact profile of most tokenized RWA and crypto infrastructure projects. The pairing with a weak-but-improving sentiment print suggests this is a term-premium and fiscal-supply problem, not a growth story. Whether the long end stabilizes or keeps repricing is the open question for risk appetite across the sector.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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