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Fed Officials Signal Hawkish Stance, October Rate Hike Odds Rise to 64%

Multiple Federal Reserve officials warned inflation risks remain unresolved, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack saying inflation has run high for over five years and restrictive policy must be maintained. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said the Fed “still hasn’t solved inflation” and flagged extreme U.S. debt levels, while New York Fed President John Williams pointed to repeated supply shocks. CME FedWatch data shows markets pricing a 64.2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October.

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AI take

The notable shift here is that the debate has moved from how long to hold rates to whether another hike is needed, with three regional presidents converging on the same hawkish message. That matters most for rate-sensitive corners of crypto and tokenized real-world assets, where higher-for-longer funding costs pressure yields and valuations. The open question is whether the October odds keep climbing as more data arrives, or whether this is a vocal minority within the committee rather than its center of gravity.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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