CITIC Securities Forecasts China Home Prices to Bottom Out Around 2027 Spring Festival

The significance here is less the timing than the mechanism: a major brokerage is arguing that delivery risk, not affordability, was the binding constraint on Chinese housing demand, and that policy has now largely removed it. If that diagnosis holds, the read-through extends well beyond property developers to the consumer confidence and credit channels that RWA and crypto markets have increasingly treated as a macro input. Whether the recovery broadens across markets, as the forecast assumes, remains the open question.