JPMorgan AM: Global Government Bond Duration Fairly Valued After Yield Repricing

The notable shift here is the framing: duration is described as fairly valued only after the market abandoned rate-cut expectations for hike expectations, implying the repricing did the work rather than any change in fundamentals. The structural argument is the more consequential part — deficits, QT and AI/infrastructure capex as persistent sources of higher real yields suggests the post-2008 rate regime is being treated as an anomaly rather than a baseline. Whether that capex demand actually materialises as durable issuance pressure, or fades with the cycle, is the open question for long-end pricing.