China’s External Debt Rises 4% to $2.4982 Trillion at End-June 2026

The composition shift matters more than the headline growth: local-currency debt now exceeding half the total suggests renminbi financing is displacing foreign-currency borrowing, which reduces exchange-rate mismatch risk on the sovereign and corporate books. The attribution to trade credit and inter-company lending points to real-economy flows rather than speculative portfolio inflows, a distinction rating agencies and offshore creditors tend to weigh differently. Whether the local-currency share keeps climbing, and whether medium- and long-term debt's 41% share holds as short-term trade credit expands, is the open question for refinancing-risk watchers.