TREE NEWS reports: Barclays strategist Samuel Earl said in a report that the recent drop in Treasury bill prices is likely to continue over the coming months, as inflows into money market funds — a key driver of bill pricing — have stalled. Three-month bill yields now sit 9 basis points above same-tenor SOFR overnight index swaps, and Earl said valuations look worse further out the curve.
Barclays: T-bill selloff may persist as money fund inflows stall
The significance here is that a core structural bid for T-bills — money fund inflows — is being framed as stalled, which shifts bill pricing toward rate expectations rather than steady demand. That matters for anyone using bills as collateral or a cash proxy, since the front end is where funding conditions show up first. The gap between bill yields and SOFR swaps is the tell: it suggests investors are demanding compensation for holding duration rather than parking cash. Whether money fund flows reaccelerate, and whether that spread widens further out the curve, is the open question.
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