Kalshi in talks to raise $1B at $40B valuation, Sequoia and Wellington to lead

The striking thing is the pace: a $5B valuation, then $22B, now a prospective $40B, each step within roughly a year. That trajectory says capital is repricing prediction markets as a category rather than betting on one operator, and the involvement of crossover names like Wellington and Tiger alongside Sequoia signals this is being underwritten as mainstream financial infrastructure, not a niche gambling app. The open question is whether that multiple survives regulatory scrutiny of event contracts, and whether the round actually closes at the headline number — talks are not commitments.