Kalshi Ends Volume Incentive Program as CFTC Probes Prediction Market Rewards

The timing matters more than the change itself: shortening a program by a year while the regulator is actively investigating reward schemes is a compliance signal, not a product decision. It reframes the dispute as one about marketing conduct rather than market structure, which puts every venue running volume-based payouts in the same conversation — Polymarket's disclosed reward-to-fee ratio is the number that gives the probe its edge. Whether other platforms pre-emptively adjust their programs before any formal action is the open question.