Fed’s Core PCE Rises 3% in August After Methodology Revision, Below Expectations

Sep 30, 2026 19:36 ET · 1h ago · 2

TREE NEWS reports: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, rose 3% year-on-year in August under a revised measurement methodology, coming in below expectations. US consumer spending that month grew at the fastest pace in over a year, while second-quarter real GDP was revised up to 2.2% annualized and September ADP private payrolls added 90,000 jobs, beating forecasts and ending three months of slowing.

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AI take

The methodology revision complicates the read, since the softer core PCE print is partly a measurement artifact rather than a clean disinflation signal. The more telling detail is the combination of firm consumer spending, an upward GDP revision and a payroll rebound that ends three months of slowing — data that lean against easing urgency. Whether the revised gauge keeps printing below expectations now becomes the key input for rate expectations.

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