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Macro

Hedge Funds Double Down on Shorting Euro as French Risks Mount

Hedge funds have bought options betting on a weaker euro against the dollar, with large trades wagering on a decline outnumbering bullish wagers by more than two to one over the past two days. The euro fell to $1.1287 on Thursday, its lowest since May 2025, after dropping 2.5% against the dollar in September, its worst monthly performance since July 2025. Concerns over France’s next budget are weighing on the currency, while expectations of further US rate hikes are boosting dollar demand.

Original source

AI take

The positioning shift matters more than the spot move: options flow skewed more than two-to-one toward euro weakness suggests hedge funds are treating French budget risk as a durable theme rather than a headline trade. That matters for anyone with unhedged euro exposure into year-end. The open question is whether the budget standoff produces a concrete catalyst or simply grinds on, and whether dollar strength continues to be driven by US rate expectations rather than euro-specific stress.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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